Nvidia Reports Fiscal Q4 2026 Results, Projects Q1 2027 Outlook Amidst Market Discussion

Nvidia Corporation reported its fiscal fourth-quarter 2026 results on Wednesday, February 25, surpassing analyst expectations for revenue and earnings. The company also provided a first-quarter 2027 revenue forecast that exceeded estimates. Following the announcement, Nvidia's stock experienced a mixed reaction in after-hours trading, prompting discussions among financial analysts regarding the sustainability of the company's growth and its future outlook, particularly concerning its operations in China.

Nvidia's strong fiscal Q4 2026 performance and robust Q1 2027 outlook have been tempered by mixed market reactions and ongoing concerns regarding growth sustainability and China revenue uncertainty.

For the fiscal fourth quarter of 2026, which ended January 25, Nvidia reported $68.13 billion in revenue, marking a 73% increase year-over-year. This figure surpassed Wall Street analyst estimates, which had anticipated revenue of approximately $65.7 billion.

The company's earnings per share (EPS) reached $1.62, also exceeding analyst expectations of $1.52 per share. For the full fiscal year 2026, Nvidia reported total revenue of $216 billion, with a profit margin of 54%.

Nvidia projected its revenue for the first quarter of fiscal year 2027 to be between $76.44 billion and $79.56 billion. This forecast is significantly higher than analysts' previous estimates, which ranged from $71 billion to $72 billion.

The company also projected gross margins for the quarter to be near 75%, aligning with the higher end of analyst expectations of 73% to 75%.

Nvidia's Q1 2027 revenue forecast of up to $79.56 billion significantly outpaces analyst expectations, signaling continued strong performance.

Nvidia's shares gained 1.44% during Wednesday's regular trading session, closing at $195.62. In after-hours trading, the stock initially declined briefly before stabilizing with a slight increase. This muted after-hours response led to varied interpretations from financial analysts:

• Jim Cramer of CNBC described the after-hours decline as unwarranted, stating it was "a mistake" given the reported performance.

• Gene Munster, managing partner at Deepwater Asset Management, suggested the market's reaction reflects ongoing concerns about the sustainability of Nvidia's growth. Munster anticipates the company will continue to perform well and sees further upside for the stock, though he noted that potential gains might be more limited compared to smaller AI companies due to Nvidia's substantial market capitalization, currently reported at $4.75 trillion.

During its earnings call, Nvidia executives stated that their financial outlook does not assume revenue from China, and the prospects for future shipments to the region remain uncertain.

Colette Kress, Nvidia's Chief Financial Officer, clarified that while limited quantities of H200 products for China-based customers received approval from the U.S. government, the company has not yet generated any revenue from these sales, and it is unknown whether further imports will be permitted into China.

Nvidia's financial outlook explicitly excludes revenue from China, highlighting significant uncertainty regarding future shipments and sales in the region.

Nvidia is a key provider of computing hardware for generative artificial intelligence (AI) workloads, positioning it for continued growth as AI infrastructure develops.

Major hyperscalers, including Microsoft, Amazon, Google, Meta, and Oracle, are projected to collectively spend over $600 billion in capital expenditures in 2026, with a significant portion allocated to AI infrastructure. Nvidia projects global data center capital expenditures to reach $3 trillion to $4 trillion annually by 2030, primarily driven by AI spending.

Analysis suggests that if Nvidia maintains its fiscal year 2026 market share of 36% within a $4 trillion spending scenario, its revenue could potentially reach $1.44 trillion, with profits of $780 billion based on its 54% profit margin from fiscal year 2026.

Applying a 30 times trailing earnings multiple to these profits would result in a projected stock valuation of $23.4 trillion. This projection, contingent on sustained market share and spending trends, would exceed Nvidia's current market capitalization and the combined market capitalization of the other "Magnificent Seven" companies, which stands at $16.3 trillion.

Projected AI spending could drive Nvidia's revenue to $1.44 trillion and profits to $780 billion by 2030, potentially valuing the company at $23.4 trillion, surpassing the combined market cap of the other "Magnificent Seven" companies.