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Israeli Coalition Faces Potential Collapse Over Ultra-Orthodox Military Conscription Issue

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A Political Dispute Over Ultra-Orthodox Conscription Threatens Netanyahu’s Coalition

A political standoff over military conscription for ultra-Orthodox Jewish men is threatening the stability of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's governing coalition. The crisis has triggered public protests, legal challenges, and a demand from a key ultra-Orthodox coalition partner to dissolve parliament, potentially leading to new elections.

Political Developments

An ultra-Orthodox faction, Degel HaTorah, has called for the dissolution of the Israeli parliament (Knesset).

"We have no trust in Netanyahu anymore. We must move to dissolve the parliament imminently," the faction stated.

A vote on dissolution is expected next week. If elections are held, the legal deadline is October 27, with a possible election date in September.

Ultra-Orthodox parties are essential coalition partners for Prime Minister Netanyahu. A key demand from these parties in exchange for their political support is the continuation of military draft exemptions for their constituents. This issue has led to the collapse of Netanyahu's governments on two previous occasions.

The current standoff follows the defeat of a previous conscription bill in July. After that vote, the United Torah Judaism party withdrew from the government, leaving the coalition with 60 of 120 parliamentary seats. Ministers from the Shas party resigned over the issue, though the party has not formally exited the coalition.

Prime Minister Netanyahu has reportedly told ultra-Orthodox leaders he would not advance legislation shielding their community from the draft before elections. If elections are called, Netanyahu would remain acting prime minister until a new government is formed. Right-wing former Prime Minister Naftali Bennett is expected to run with centrist opposition leader Yair Lapid.

Legal and Historical Background

The exemption for ultra-Orthodox (Haredi) men enrolled in full-time religious study was established in 1948. Israel's High Court of Justice ruled this exemption illegal approximately two decades ago.

Temporary arrangements allowing the exemption were formally concluded by the court last year, prompting the government to initiate the conscription of ultra-Orthodox men.

Public Protest and Incident

Thousands of ultra-Orthodox Jews have participated in regular protests against proposed legislation that would mandate military service.

On Tuesday, an 18-year-old male was fatally injured during a protest in Jerusalem. The incident involved a bus striking a crowd, leading to the teenager being crushed. Israeli police detained the bus driver. Video footage depicts a bus moving into a crowd of ultra-Orthodox men.

According to police statements, the driver alleged he was assaulted by rioters prior to the incident, after the bus was reportedly obstructed by demonstrators. Police reported that a segment of the protest involved public disorder, including blocking traffic, damaging buses, setting trash bins on fire, and throwing objects at law enforcement and journalists.

This month, two Haredi politicians were targeted by some ultra-Orthodox protesters. Last week, a special Border Police unit intervened to rescue Military Police officers who were targeted by a crowd of Haredi men while attempting to arrest a suspected draft-evader. A messaging system named "Black Alert" has been established to disseminate information within ultra-Orthodox communities and mobilize protesters to prevent arrests.

Demographics and Public Opinion

Over the past seven decades, the ultra-Orthodox population has more than doubled its share of Israel's total population, now constituting approximately 14% of Israel's Jewish population.

The initial exemption for a few hundred religious students had expanded to approximately 60,000 men by the commencement of the Gaza war. In the past year, approximately 24,000 draft notices were issued; however, military testimony indicates that only about 1,200 ultra-Orthodox draftees reported for duty.

Public opinion polls indicate increasing support for ultra-Orthodox conscription. A July survey by the Israel Democracy Institute found that 85% of non-Haredi Jews, including nearly 75% of those in Prime Minister Netanyahu's Likud party, supported sanctions for individuals refusing a draft order. A majority favored withdrawing benefits, passports, or voting rights.

Statements from Stakeholders

Shmuel Orbach (protester): "You can't fight against Judaism in a Jewish country. It doesn't work."

Rabbi Tzemach Mazuz (head of the Kisse Rahamim yeshiva): Stated that continuous prayer and religious study protect Israel's soldiers and are as crucial as military hardware. He acknowledged societal changes, noting, "Today, many in the government and the Knesset have distanced themselves from religion. They say yeshiva students are lazy, which is not true."

Dorit Barak (religious Jew living near a yeshiva in Bnei Brak): Supports extending the draft and advocates for a combination of religious study and military service. She noted that the last soldier from her neighborhood died in 1983, attributing this to a demographic shift where the area has become predominantly ultra-Orthodox.

An off-duty soldier in Tel Aviv: "It makes me feel there are people who live in this country without giving anything back."

Gabby (resident of Tel Aviv): "I don't think, however religious you are, [it] should be an excuse not to go and serve your country."

Lawmaker Boaz Bismuth (Netanyahu loyalist): Described the current draft bill as a significant measure.

Governmental Response

Prime Minister Netanyahu announced in October that the new draft bill aims to draft 10,000 yeshiva students within two years, describing it as "a real revolution."

The Israel Defense Forces maintains special units for the small number of ultra-Orthodox men who currently choose to serve.