CFTC Asserts Exclusive Jurisdiction Over Prediction Markets, Chairman Vows Legal Action

The Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) has filed an amicus brief in federal court, asserting its authority over prediction markets. CFTC Chairman Michael Selig, nominated by President Donald Trump, testified on Capitol Hill on November 19, 2025, outlining the agency's firm stance.

In a Wall Street Journal op-ed, Selig contended that the CFTC has historically held jurisdiction over prediction markets, determining whether event contracts constitute gambling. He noted that nearly 50 active legal cases exist against prediction markets, indicating the CFTC's intent to intervene against state involvement.

"The CFTC will no longer sit idly by while overzealous state governments undermine the agency's exclusive jurisdiction over these markets by seeking to establish statewide prohibitions on these exciting products," Selig stated.

This action comes as prediction platforms like Kalshi and Polymarket face legal challenges in various states regarding their event contracts. These platforms enable users to wager on outcomes across pop culture, sports, and entertainment. While critics argue these offerings are gambling, Kalshi maintains adherence to federal regulations.

Chairman Selig's Vision for Regulation

In late January, in his initial public comments as CFTC chairman, Selig expressed readiness to develop new regulations for prediction markets and review the agency's involvement in federal and circuit court cases.

"Where jurisdictional questions are at issue, the Commission has the expertise and responsibility to defend its exclusive jurisdiction over commodity derivatives," he previously stated.

Selig's op-ed also asserted that event contracts fulfill "legitimate economic functions" and operate under CFTC rules as "swaps" rather than gambling. He argued that trading on these contracts benefits the market and the public, characterizing these exchanges as self-regulatory organizations supervised by CFTC staff.

"We Will See You In Court"

In a video posted to X on Tuesday, Selig delivered a direct message to those who challenge the CFTC's authority:

"We will see you in court."

He added that the CFTC is taking steps "to ensure that these markets have a place here in America and have the integrity and resilience and vibrancy that our derivative markets deserve."

The amicus brief is specifically intended for the Ninth U.S. Circuit Court of Appeals, where it supports Crypto.com in its dispute with the Nevada Gaming Control Board.