Jordan's Deepening Concerns Over West Bank Policies

Jordanian former officials and strategists have voiced escalating concerns regarding Israel's new land registry laws and military activities in the occupied West Bank. They interpret these actions as a progression towards an 'alternative homeland' scenario, where Jordan could become the Palestinian state.

They interpret these actions as a progression towards an 'alternative homeland' scenario, where Jordan could become the Palestinian state.

Israeli Land Registration Developments

The Israeli cabinet recently approved measures to register significant areas of the occupied West Bank as 'state land' under the Israeli Ministry of Justice. This decision, which Israeli Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich termed a 'settlement revolution', effectively moves authority from the military administration that has overseen the territory since 1967, treating it instead as sovereign Israeli territory.

Jordanian officials view this administrative change as an indication that the current status quo is unsustainable. With Israeli military operations ongoing in West Bank refugee camps such as Jenin and Tulkarem, Jordan's political and military establishment is evaluating strategies to address potential population displacement.

Mamdouh al-Abbadi, Jordan’s former deputy prime minister, stated that the concept of 'transfer' is moving towards execution, suggesting that after developments in the West Bank, attention could shift to Jordan.

Potential 'Soft Transfer' Scenario

Concerns in Amman extend beyond military invasion to a potential 'soft transfer,' where conditions in the West Bank might become increasingly difficult, leading to a gradual exodus towards Jordan. The transfer of land registration authority to the Israeli Justice Ministry is seen as a key step in this process. By modifying Jordanian and Ottoman land registries that have historically safeguarded Palestinian property rights, Israel may facilitate further settlement expansion.

Al-Abbadi also referenced the formation of a new Israeli army unit, the Gilead Brigade, interpreting this as a sign of Israel's broader strategic goals in the region. He also suggested that the 1994 Wadi Araba Treaty is not being fully honored by the current Israeli leadership.

Military and Security Assessments

Major-General (retired) Mamoun Abu Nowar, a military expert, characterized Israel’s actions as an 'undeclared war' on Jordan.

He proposed that if displacement pressures persist, Jordan might declare the Jordan Valley a closed military zone to prevent population movement, an action that could escalate regional tensions. Despite military capability disparities, he highlighted Jordan's social fabric, including its tribal structures, as a significant defensive asset. He cautioned that a crossing of specific 'red lines' could lead to a 'regional earthquake.'

Concerns Regarding US Support

Jordanian officials have expressed diminished confidence in support from the United States, its long-standing ally. Oraib al-Rantawi, director of the Al-Quds Center for Political Studies, noted a perceived shift in US focus from Amman and Cairo to Gulf capitals, particularly evident since the Trump administration. He indicated that when faced with a choice between allies, Washington tends to prioritize Israel.

Oraib al-Rantawi, director of the Al-Quds Center for Political Studies, noted a perceived shift in US focus from Amman and Cairo to Gulf capitals, particularly evident since the Trump administration.

Al-Rantawi described Jordan's geopolitical position as challenging, balancing its reliance on US aid with a perceived existential threat from Israel. General Abu Nowar questioned the practical implications of Jordan's status as a key non-NATO ally concerning mutual defense clauses.

Calls for Strategic Adjustments and Preparedness

Amidst a perceived sense of isolation, some voices in Amman advocate for a re-evaluation of Jordan's alliances. Al-Rantawi criticized Jordan's long-standing policy of maintaining ties exclusively with the Palestinian Authority while avoiding groups like Hamas, arguing this approach has reduced Jordan's regional influence compared to countries such as Qatar, Egypt, and Turkey. He posited that this reluctance might stem from internal concerns related to the Muslim Brotherhood.

Jordanian officials largely agree that the period for diplomatic warnings is concluding. In February, the kingdom reinstated its compulsory military service program, 'Flag Service,' after a 35-year hiatus, with the aim of enhancing combat capabilities. Al-Abbadi called for universal conscription and public awareness, including Hebrew language education, and urged immediate border closures if a 'slow, camouflaged transfer' of population were to occur.

The current situation is viewed as Jordan's most challenging since 1967, with the kingdom facing considerable regional pressures.