A by-election for the Victorian state seat of Nepean, located on the Mornington Peninsula, was held on May 2, 2026. The election was triggered by the resignation of Liberal MP Sam Groth in February 2026. The Liberal Party has retained the seat. The by-election occurred six months before the scheduled 2026 Victorian state election.
"The Liberal Party has held the seat for all but one term in the past 40 years, with an exception at a landslide Labor victory in 2018."
Result and Vote Share
With approximately 80% of votes counted, the Victorian Liberal Party candidate Anthony Marsh was projected to be the winner by ABC elections analyst Casey Briggs. The Victorian Electoral Commission has not yet declared the official result, with counting continuing and a full distribution of preferences scheduled to begin on May 11.
Preliminary figures for the primary vote were as follows:
- Anthony Marsh (Liberal Party): 38.5%
- Darren Hercus (One Nation): 24.7%
- Tracee Hutchison (Independent): 21.3%
- Greens: 9.3%
On a two-candidate-preferred basis, Mr. Marsh led Ms. Hutchison with 63.5% to 36.5%.
Background and Context
The by-election was triggered by the resignation of Sam Groth, who cited pressure on his family from sources within the Liberal Party. The Australian Labor Party chose not to field a candidate in the by-election, consistent with its practice of not contesting by-elections in seats it does not hold.
The Candidates
Anthony Marsh (Liberal Party):
Anthony Marsh was the Mayor of Mornington Peninsula Shire at the time of his candidacy and took leave for the campaign. He is a former Air Force officer and small business owner. Mr. Marsh joined the Liberal Party on February 10 and received special dispensation on February 12 to seek preselection, circumventing the standard 12-month membership requirement. The candidate selection was determined by the state executive rather than a ballot of local branch members, which caused internal dissent. Mr. Marsh acknowledged he does not live in the electorate and could not vote for himself but noted he had been mayor in the area three times in the past five years.
Darren Hercus (One Nation):
Darren Hercus is a civil engineer and small business owner. His campaign focused on the cost of living crisis, housing, crime, and the redevelopment of Rosebud Hospital. He stated that some Liberal voters switched to One Nation due to frustrations with the Liberal Party.
Tracee Hutchison (Independent):
Tracee Hutchison is a former broadcaster and journalist. She campaigned as a community independent and declined funding from Climate 200. Her campaign focused on the redevelopment of Rosebud Hospital and opposition to a major redevelopment at Arthurs Seat. She ran an open ticket for preferences.
Sianan Healy (Greens):
Sianan Healy works in women's health and holds a PhD in history.
Campaign and Voter Concerns
Key issues raised by voters included the condition of the 65-year-old Rosebud Hospital, road maintenance (including potholes), the rising cost of living, and homelessness on the Mornington Peninsula, which recorded the highest number of rough sleepers statewide in the previous year.
"As of the Friday before the election, over half of the 50,000 eligible voters had cast early ballots."
Political Reactions
- Anthony Marsh described becoming the member for Nepean as "the honour of my life" and stated he would campaign daily for the people of Nepean leading into the state election.
- Opposition Leader Jess Wilson welcomed the result but said the party had more work to do before the November poll, citing the need to win 16 seats to change government. She attributed the fragmented electorate to cost-of-living pressures and a perception that Victoria has declined.
- Premier Jacinta Allan congratulated Mr. Marsh but claimed the result showed the Liberal Party cannot govern without One Nation, a claim Ms. Wilson denied, stating no preference deal was in place.
- Monash University political scientist Zareh Ghazarian said that while retaining the seat was a relief, the Liberal primary vote had dropped about 10% since the last election, indicating voter caution. He said the result supports Ms. Wilson's leadership and may reduce internal party panic.
- Monash University senior politics lecturer Benjamin Moffitt said the strong One Nation showing could be a problem for the Liberal Party in the state election.
Broader Electoral Context
- The by-election was the first significant electoral test for Liberal leader Jess Wilson, who assumed the role in November 2025.
- Polling prior to the by-election had shown a competitive race, with a Roy Morgan poll in April showing Labor at 25.5%, One Nation at 24.5%, and the Liberal Party at 24% in primary vote terms.
- The by-election is estimated to have cost approximately $2 million.